CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2021-05-28T23:12:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2021-05-28T23:12ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/17008/-1
CME Note: The EUV wave seen in SDO 193 is very wide and directed to the center disk. The CME is associated with a C9.4 class flare from AR 2824. The CME was first only visible in STA COR2A at 23:23Z, but since the original CME entry the C2 and C3 frames have come in and the CME is first seen in C2 at 23:12Z. CME ARRIVAL NOTE: The arrival of this CME is embedded within a CIR. From Lan Jian: "The parameter changes at the shock soon after 12 UT on June 2 are more than what is expected for a SIR shock, and there are some field rotations after that" possibly indicative of a "CIR+ICME event."
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2021-06-02T12:20Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
Max Kp: 3.0
Predicted Arrival Time: 2021-06-01T00:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 30.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (Met Office)
Prediction Method Note:
Met Office ENLIL settings. ENLIL version: 2.7 Resolution: medium-res (512x60x180) (X1=0.1-1.7/uniform X2=30.-150./uniform X3=0.-360./uniform) Ambient settings: a3b2-sa1 WSA version: 2.2 Please specify following CME input parameters. Time at 21.5Rs boundary: 29/0318 Z Radial velocity (km/s): 910 km/s Longitude (deg): 60W Latitude (deg): 5S Half-angular width (deg): 46 Notes: CME seen this morning in Stereo A COR2 and SOHO Lasco C2/C3 with wide angle above 90 degrees. Most of the CME will miss Earth, but there is a chance (~30%) of a detectable shock wave late on the 31st, or early on the 1st June +/- 12 hrs. It was not easy to fit the longitude, with variation between 50 and 65 degrees W, this led to a range of speeds between 650 and 950 km/s. The Type II radio burst speed of 2087 km/s was considered far too fast. Space weather advisor: MOSWOC forecastersLead Time: 95.58 hour(s)
Difference: 36.33 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Met Office (Met Office) on 2021-05-29T12:45Z
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